Thursday, October 16, 2008
The recent “Faith and American Politics Survey,” a survey sponsored by Faith in Public Life and conducted by our firm, Public Religion Research, contains a fresh, in-depth look at youth, religion, and politics in the 2008 election cycle. One of the most interesting insights revealed by the survey was a new look at the fate of the so-called “God gap,” the high correlation between rates of religious service attendance and partisan vote. Whereas the relationship between religious attendance and vote was nearly linear in 2004, our new survey found that monthly church attenders—a critical group (15% of registered voters) that John Kerry lost to George W. Bush 49% to 51%—are now supporting Barack Obama over John McCain 60% to 32%.
A Quick Look Back at 2004
In the wake of the 2004 elections, we heard much about the “God-gap.” In 2004, Bush captured the vast majority of voters who were in the pews every week, and Kerry remained the favorite among those who seldom or never attended religious services. Further analysis revealed that this correlation was not a byproduct of other variables. Regression analysis on the 2004 exit polls indicates that religious attendance was one of the strongest independent predictors of vote—stronger than a variety of other possible predictors such as age, gender, income, and education.
In 2004, voters who attended religious services more than once a week were six-times more likely to support Bush than those who never attended. If you compare this gap to the more familiar “gender gap,” the power of religious attendance becomes evident: in 2004, men were only one and a half times as likely to support Bush than women. In the general population, the only demographic variable that rivaled religious attendance was race (specifically, being African American), with religious attendance ranking as the second strongest independent predictor of vote. Significantly, among whites, religious attendance was the strongest single predictor of vote in 2004.
Monthly Attenders Swing for Obama in 2008
In 2008, the pattern of support in the general population among those who attend most and least often has changed little. Republican candidate John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama 54% to 38% among voters who attend religious services once a week or more, and Obama leads McCain 61% to 29% among voters who attend seldom or never. Among the general population, there is one major difference, however, between 2004 and 2008. This year, six-in-ten voters who attend services once or twice a month are now supporting Obama, an 11-point swing from 2004....
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You can read the rest of the column at ReligionDispatches.org.
Labels: culture wars, election, exit polls, god gap, public religion research
Given the divisive role religion played in the 2004 election, many progressives have been waiting for a resumption of the culture wars in this election season. Yet despite the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket, (a Pentecostal governor who strongly opposes abortion rights), there is little evidence that the social issues which played such a prominent role four years ago will dominate the 2008 election. Neither the new ruling today by the Connecticut Supreme Court striking down a law prohibiting gay and lesbian couples from getting married, nor the battle in California over a ballot initiative to repeal the current law that guarantees gay and lesbian couples marriage rights seem likely to reignite the culture wars nationwide.
The newly released "Faith and American Politics Survey," sponsored by Faith in Public Life and conducted by my firm, Public Religion Research, offers some key insights into this changing American religious landscape. Like other recent surveys, we found that religious Americans, like all Americans in this election, care much more about the economy, gas prices, and health care than they do about abortion or same-sex marriage. In fact, 83% of Americans say the economy will be a very important factor in their vote in November, compared to just 28% who say that same-sex marriage will be very important. Even among white evangelicals, the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage do not rank in the top five most important issues for the election.
Perhaps more importantly, we found that younger Americans of faith (18-34) are not their parents' culture war generation. On issues from gay and lesbian rights to the role of government at home and the role of America around the world, young Americans are bridging the divides they have inherited from the previous generation and are ushering in an era where the common good trumps ideological orthodoxy....
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Read the rest of the article at Beliefnet's Progressive Revival Blog.
Labels: abortion, catholics, Christians, culture wars, election, evangelicals, exit polls, Homosexuality, public religion research, same-sex marriage
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Note: The full text of this blog can be read in my regular "Dispatches from the Beltway" column on Religion Dispatches.
E.J. Dionne’s bold pronouncement that “the era of the Religious Right is over” has been the subject of much discussion and debate. Those who agree cite the growing support for broadening the evangelical agenda to include issues like the environment (a.k.a. “creation care”), poverty, and HIV/AIDS. They also point to the graying of the Religious Right, most prominently the deaths of Jerry Falwell and James Kennedy, and the virtual collapse of the Christian Coalition. Moreover, prominent old guard leaders like James Dobson and Pat Robertson have seriously damaged their credibility with many evangelicals by endorsing Mitt Romney, a Mormon, and Rudy Guiliani, a thrice-married, pro-choice New York governor, while passing over fellow-evangelical candidate Mick Huckabee. No one need ask for a more bald demonstration of prioritizing power over principle from the self-proclaimed leaders of “values voters.”
Skeptics of the decline of the Religious Right, on the other hand, cite the huge infrastructure, resources, and reach the Religious Right has built over the last few decades (to take just one example, James Dobson’s sprawling conglomerate has its own zip code in Colorado Springs and a larger monthly print circulation than the New York Times) and argue that it will not so easily wither on the vine. The most jaded on the left simply assert that the Religious Right is the truest expression of the heart of the evangelical community and is thus here to stay.
If the argument that “the era of the Religious Right is over” depended solely on what one might call the “graying and greening” argument—that the leadership is aging and out of touch and that a few issues like the environment have simply been attached to a persistent static core—I too would be skeptical. I want to argue, however, that the reason I believe Dionne is right is that a more thoroughgoing and measurable shift is happening within the evangelical community, one that represents not simply a broader agenda but also a significantly different spirit and worldview.
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Read the rest of the article at Religion Dispatches.
Labels: culture wars, dispatches from the beltway, environment, evangelicals, religious right
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Come Let Us Reason Together: Calling for an End to the Culture Wars
E.J. Dionne wrote a strong column today about our paper, "A Treaty in the Culture Wars: Requiem for the Religious Right?", where he calls this effort an "important sign that religious conservatives are facing the disintegration of their movement."
The following are a summary of my remarks delivered at the press conference:
I stand here today keenly aware of my own multiple identities. First, I stand today with Third Way as a progressive. Like Rachel, prior to co-authoring this paper, I worked with a number of progressive organizations, most prominently serving as the founding director and senior fellow of the Center for American Values in Public Life at People for the American Way Foundation. I have published a book and several articles exploring future directions for liberalism, and I am currently completing a book on the growing progressive religious movement in America.
But I also grew up as an Evangelical in Mississippi, earned a degree from a Southern Baptist college and then a Master of Divinity degree from a Southern Baptist seminary in Texas where I trained for the ministry before pursuing a Ph.D. in religion.
Both of these identities have informed a growing conviction that I share with many others who know these two communities: that we are ready to end the culture wars. Long and bitter conflicts around cultural issues have not only stifled progress toward common goals, but have damaged our sense that a shared national life is even possible. We are here today to insist that it is possible and to chart a course forward together.
As we begin to chart that course, I want to draw your attention to one of the most important insights from our research about the diversity of Evangelicals as a group. During our research, we found a consistent pattern across a number of broad measures that we dubbed the one-fifth, one-third, one-half formula:
- One-fifth of Evangelicals [representing 5% of the general population] are progressive;
- One-third of Evangelicals [representing 8% of the general population] are moderates who share some progressive values; and
- One-half of Evangelicals [representing 13% of the general population] are conservatives who may be partners on particular issues.
This, I believe, is cause for great hope, as is the very presence here today of so many people, Evangelical and progressive, who are committed to doing the hard work of reasoning together.
Labels: culture wars, evangelicals, religion
