I wanted to flag for everyone this article in the National Catholic Reporter that mentions my new book, Progressive and Religious, and role of religion in the 2008 election.

"I think what the emerging progressive religious movement is poised to do is to help us move from the culture wars, where religion is the tip of the spear that divided Americans," said Robert Jones, a sociologist and author of "Progressive & Religious."

"What we're really seeing is a rebalancing in many ways in this election," said Jones. "In 2004, we had the artificial constriction of religion to a couple of hot-button issues and one party."

The full article is available here.

Labels: catholics, election, progressive and religious

The recent “Faith and American Politics Survey,” a survey sponsored by Faith in Public Life and conducted by our firm, Public Religion Research, contains a fresh, in-depth look at youth, religion, and politics in the 2008 election cycle. One of the most interesting insights revealed by the survey was a new look at the fate of the so-called “God gap,” the high correlation between rates of religious service attendance and partisan vote. Whereas the relationship between religious attendance and vote was nearly linear in 2004, our new survey found that monthly church attenders—a critical group (15% of registered voters) that John Kerry lost to George W. Bush 49% to 51%—are now supporting Barack Obama over John McCain 60% to 32%.

A Quick Look Back at 2004

In the wake of the 2004 elections, we heard much about the “God-gap.” In 2004, Bush captured the vast majority of voters who were in the pews every week, and Kerry remained the favorite among those who seldom or never attended religious services. Further analysis revealed that this correlation was not a byproduct of other variables. Regression analysis on the 2004 exit polls indicates that religious attendance was one of the strongest independent predictors of vote—stronger than a variety of other possible predictors such as age, gender, income, and education.

In 2004, voters who attended religious services more than once a week were six-times more likely to support Bush than those who never attended. If you compare this gap to the more familiar “gender gap,” the power of religious attendance becomes evident: in 2004, men were only one and a half times as likely to support Bush than women. In the general population, the only demographic variable that rivaled religious attendance was race (specifically, being African American), with religious attendance ranking as the second strongest independent predictor of vote. Significantly, among whites, religious attendance was the strongest single predictor of vote in 2004.

Monthly Attenders Swing for Obama in 2008

In 2008, the pattern of support in the general population among those who attend most and least often has changed little. Republican candidate John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama 54% to 38% among voters who attend religious services once a week or more, and Obama leads McCain 61% to 29% among voters who attend seldom or never. Among the general population, there is one major difference, however, between 2004 and 2008. This year, six-in-ten voters who attend services once or twice a month are now supporting Obama, an 11-point swing from 2004....

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You can read the rest of the column at ReligionDispatches.org.

Labels: culture wars, election, exit polls, god gap, public religion research

Note: Cross-posted from Beliefnet's Progressive Revival Blog.

Given the divisive role religion played in the 2004 election, many progressives have been waiting for a resumption of the culture wars in this election season. Yet despite the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket, (a Pentecostal governor who strongly opposes abortion rights), there is little evidence that the social issues which played such a prominent role four years ago will dominate the 2008 election. Neither the new ruling today by the Connecticut Supreme Court striking down a law prohibiting gay and lesbian couples from getting married, nor the battle in California over a ballot initiative to repeal the current law that guarantees gay and lesbian couples marriage rights seem likely to reignite the culture wars nationwide.

The newly released "Faith and American Politics Survey," sponsored by Faith in Public Life and conducted by my firm, Public Religion Research, offers some key insights into this changing American religious landscape. Like other recent surveys, we found that religious Americans, like all Americans in this election, care much more about the economy, gas prices, and health care than they do about abortion or same-sex marriage. In fact, 83% of Americans say the economy will be a very important factor in their vote in November, compared to just 28% who say that same-sex marriage will be very important. Even among white evangelicals, the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage do not rank in the top five most important issues for the election.

Perhaps more importantly, we found that younger Americans of faith (18-34) are not their parents' culture war generation. On issues from gay and lesbian rights to the role of government at home and the role of America around the world, young Americans are bridging the divides they have inherited from the previous generation and are ushering in an era where the common good trumps ideological orthodoxy....

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Read the rest of the article at Beliefnet's Progressive Revival Blog.

Labels: abortion, catholics, Christians, culture wars, election, evangelicals, exit polls, Homosexuality, public religion research, same-sex marriage

Note: This entry cross-posted from Beliefnet's Progressive Revival blog.

In one of the most explicitly theological questions of Saturday night's "Saddleback Civil Forum," Pastor Rick Warren asked both candidates, "Does evil exist in the world today? If so, what should we do about it?" While both Obama and McCain affirmed their belief in the existence of evil, their responses revealed deeply different theological orientations in two major areas that have direct policy implications: human responsibility and the location of evil in the world.

Obama began his answer by declaring that we have a clear responsibility to confront and resist evil, but that it is "God's task" to ultimately defeat evil. . Obama went on to clarify that we can be "soldiers" in that effort but that we must have humility to realize that good intentions are not enough to guarantee good actions. McCain, on the other hand, interrupted Warren's question to flatly state that we should and can "totally defeat evil" in the world.

While McCain's bravado garnered more applause among Saddleback's evangelical audience, it is theologically problematic from a Christian point of view. If America is in charge of defeating evil in the world, this literally puts America in the role of God, a position that theologically speaking is blasphemy. Despite McCain's popularity at the evangelical Saddleback forum, it was ironically Obama's worldview--where God guarantees the defeat of evil while we have faithful parts to play--that reflected not only the more orthodox Christian worldview but also the best of American public theology. This more chastened position, which is rooted in a theological understanding of human finitude, reflects biblically based Christian thinking from St. Augustine through Martin Luther. This stance is also reflected in what is perhaps the greatest theological statement by an American President, Abraham Lincoln's (a Republican) second inaugural address, where he declared at the end of a war where both sides had claimed divine favor that "the Almighty has his own purposes."

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You can read the rest of the article posted on Beliefnet's Progressive Revival Blog here.

Labels: election, evangelicals, evil, mccain, obama