The recent “Faith and American Politics Survey,” a survey sponsored by Faith in Public Life and conducted by our firm, Public Religion Research, contains a fresh, in-depth look at youth, religion, and politics in the 2008 election cycle. One of the most interesting insights revealed by the survey was a new look at the fate of the so-called “God gap,” the high correlation between rates of religious service attendance and partisan vote. Whereas the relationship between religious attendance and vote was nearly linear in 2004, our new survey found that monthly church attenders—a critical group (15% of registered voters) that John Kerry lost to George W. Bush 49% to 51%—are now supporting Barack Obama over John McCain 60% to 32%.

A Quick Look Back at 2004

In the wake of the 2004 elections, we heard much about the “God-gap.” In 2004, Bush captured the vast majority of voters who were in the pews every week, and Kerry remained the favorite among those who seldom or never attended religious services. Further analysis revealed that this correlation was not a byproduct of other variables. Regression analysis on the 2004 exit polls indicates that religious attendance was one of the strongest independent predictors of vote—stronger than a variety of other possible predictors such as age, gender, income, and education.

In 2004, voters who attended religious services more than once a week were six-times more likely to support Bush than those who never attended. If you compare this gap to the more familiar “gender gap,” the power of religious attendance becomes evident: in 2004, men were only one and a half times as likely to support Bush than women. In the general population, the only demographic variable that rivaled religious attendance was race (specifically, being African American), with religious attendance ranking as the second strongest independent predictor of vote. Significantly, among whites, religious attendance was the strongest single predictor of vote in 2004.

Monthly Attenders Swing for Obama in 2008

In 2008, the pattern of support in the general population among those who attend most and least often has changed little. Republican candidate John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama 54% to 38% among voters who attend religious services once a week or more, and Obama leads McCain 61% to 29% among voters who attend seldom or never. Among the general population, there is one major difference, however, between 2004 and 2008. This year, six-in-ten voters who attend services once or twice a month are now supporting Obama, an 11-point swing from 2004....

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You can read the rest of the column at ReligionDispatches.org.

Labels: culture wars, election, exit polls, god gap, public religion research

Note: Cross-posted from Beliefnet's Progressive Revival Blog.

Given the divisive role religion played in the 2004 election, many progressives have been waiting for a resumption of the culture wars in this election season. Yet despite the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket, (a Pentecostal governor who strongly opposes abortion rights), there is little evidence that the social issues which played such a prominent role four years ago will dominate the 2008 election. Neither the new ruling today by the Connecticut Supreme Court striking down a law prohibiting gay and lesbian couples from getting married, nor the battle in California over a ballot initiative to repeal the current law that guarantees gay and lesbian couples marriage rights seem likely to reignite the culture wars nationwide.

The newly released "Faith and American Politics Survey," sponsored by Faith in Public Life and conducted by my firm, Public Religion Research, offers some key insights into this changing American religious landscape. Like other recent surveys, we found that religious Americans, like all Americans in this election, care much more about the economy, gas prices, and health care than they do about abortion or same-sex marriage. In fact, 83% of Americans say the economy will be a very important factor in their vote in November, compared to just 28% who say that same-sex marriage will be very important. Even among white evangelicals, the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage do not rank in the top five most important issues for the election.

Perhaps more importantly, we found that younger Americans of faith (18-34) are not their parents' culture war generation. On issues from gay and lesbian rights to the role of government at home and the role of America around the world, young Americans are bridging the divides they have inherited from the previous generation and are ushering in an era where the common good trumps ideological orthodoxy....

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Read the rest of the article at Beliefnet's Progressive Revival Blog.

Labels: abortion, catholics, Christians, culture wars, election, evangelicals, exit polls, Homosexuality, public religion research, same-sex marriage

Note: Cross-posted at Religion Dispatches.

As I noted in last week's Dispatches from Inside the Beltway, the official exit polls sponsored by the media have been skewed toward the Republican party in terms of religion. . The exit polls have asked more questions about religion to Republicans in every comparable state so far, and nowhere have they asked Democrats if they were "born again or evangelical." It is time for the media to jettison this outdated script about religion and fix this bias in the exit polls.

Faith in Public Life has take the lead in identifying and publicizing this problem, and last week following the Super Tuesday primaries they fielded their own post-election poll in MO and TN--a poll that for the first time identified evangelical voters among both Republicans and Democrats. After the poll results were released yesterday, Katie Barge (Communications Director for Faith in Public Life), Rev. Jim Walls (CEO, Sojourners), and Rev. Joel Hunter (Pastor, Northland Church; former president of the Christian Coalition), and I participated in a press call with over 30 reporters to talk about how this bias distorts our understanding of both politics and religion. You can listen to the call here.

The post-election poll found the following important findings:

• Senator Hillary Clinton's support from white evangelicals surpassed that of Senator Barach Obama's (MO: 54% to 37%; TN: 78% to 12%).
• Contrary to the conventional wisdom that the GOP has a lock on white evangelical voters, 1 in 3 evangelicals voted in the Democratic primary, something the official exit polls could not tell us. To put that into perspective, that's 160,000 overlooked evangelical voters in MO and 182,000 in TN (a number greater than, for example, all African American voters or all voters over 65 in the Democratic primaries in each state).
• Importantly, the poll also found that majorities of both Democratic and Republican evangelical voters want a broader agenda that goes beyond abortion and same-sex marriage to include ending poverty, protecting the environment, and tackling HIV/AIDS.

These important numbers are supported by findings from other research I and others have done over the last two years. Here are three lessons the media needs to learn in order to get the religion story right this year:

1. White evangelicals are an important constituency for both parties and are no longer a lock for the GOP.

• Evangelicals are an important part of the Democratic base. In both 2004 and 2006, Democratic candidates actually received slightly more votes from white Evangelicals than from Black Protestants, an important base group for Democrats. In 2004, 14% of John Kerry’s votes came from Evangelicals, compared to 13% from Black Protestants (Green 2004). In 2006, 11.3% of Democratic House Candidate votes came from Evangelicals, compared to 11% from Black Protestants (NEP Exit Poll, 2006).
• Young evangelicals (under 30). Since 2005, affiliation with the GOP has dropped 15 points, from 55% to 40% (Pew 2006).

2. White Evangelicals are not monolithic, even on hot-button social issues.

• The one-fifth, one-third, on-half formula: up to half of evangelicals are in play. In research I co-authored with Rachel Laser, Randy Brinson, and Joe Battaglia at Third Way, we found that evangelicals are actually 1/5 progressive, 1/3 moderate, and 1/2 conservative, a patter that held up even over hot-button social issues. These evangelical progressives and moderates make up half of evangelicals, 52 million adults.
  

3. There is an emerging movement among rank and file evangelicals to move beyond the narrow political issues of abortion and same-sex marriage.

• The American Values Survey (AVS 2006), which I directed at the Center for American Values in Public Life at People for the American Way Foundation, found that 8 in 10 evangelicals thought issues like poverty and affordable health care were more important in the country today that issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
• The old Religious Right leaders who are clinging to the narrow agenda of abortion and same-sex marriage are increasingly out of touch and no longer calling the shots. AVS also found, for example, that a plurality (44%) of evangelicals said that James Dobson and Pat Robertson did NOT speak for them. Also, tellingly, nearly a quarter of young evangelicals (under 30) said they did not know enough about these leaders to answer the question.

The evidence has been stacking up for some time now, as Rev. Jim Wallis put it on the call yesterday, that "evangelicals are leaving the Religious Right in droves." While there have been some important media stories that have gotten this admittedly complex story right, the skewed exit polling we have now is sure to fuel biased reporting. If the major media outlets that fund the exit polls want to keep wrapping themelves in self-congratulatory slogans such as "fair and balanced" and "best political team on television," they need to let go of their old script, dig deeper, and give us the unbiased coverage of religion and politics we deserve.

Labels: evangelicals, exit polls, primaries

Note: Crossposted at StreetProphets.

Despite a drumbeat of public criticism by Faith in Public Life and others about biased exit polling on religion by the major media networks, the exit polls continue to ask more questions about religion to Republicans than Democrats.

I wrote yesterday in my "Dispatches from the Beltway" column in the debut issue of Religion Dispatches about how this bias distorts our understanding of religion among both parties.

Here's the current tally:

• 25 states have had both Republican and Democratic primaries
• 20 of these states had state-wide exit polls
• All of these states asked more questions about religious affiliation to Republicans than Democrats. (Only one of these, AZ, was a Super Tuesday state).

Upshot about the major media exit poll bias:

• They have asked Republicans about religion in every exit poll, but have NOT asked Democrats ANYTHING about religion in 3 states (IA, MI, NV).
• They have NOT asked Democrats ANYWHERE about whether they were "evangelical or born again."

It's time for the media to update their script and give us balanced coverage of the role of religion in both parties.

Labels: evangelicals, exit polls, media, primaries, religion

Note: This originally posted 2/5/08 on Religion Dispatches, a new daily online magazine dedicated to the analysis and understanding of religious forces in the world today, highlighting a diversity of progressive voices. I will be writing a regular column, "Dispatches from the Beltway," there in 2008.
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Old plotlines die hard, especially when they have the seductive clarity of binary divides: right vs. left, Republican vs. Democrat, us vs. them. Nowhere is this tendency truer than in stories about religion. We have witnessed a real sea-change in the relationship between religion and progressive politics since 2004, and some of these shifts have been noted in major news stories, such as the growing coverage of the complexity of the white evangelical community. But too often, the mainstream media is still trying to force the current complexities and realignments into an outdated script.

In my former life as a software designer, we lived by the mantra, “Garbage in, garbage out.” Media storylines about religion and national elections, and thereby public perceptions, are driven by two major factors: exit polls (controlled by the major media outlets) and the selection of sources for stories by reporters. There is mounting evidence that much of the mainstream media is operating with a perversion of this mantra, a kind of “garbage in, gospel out” approach that begins and ends with its own self-verifying, dated stereotypes about religion in American public life.

The heart of the old script was the mythology of the so-called “moral values voters”--voters who were highly religious, Republican, and supposedly cared about prohibiting same-sex marriage and abortion above all else. We now know that despite the hype, the single exit poll question upon which those conclusions were based in 2004 was deeply flawed.

In a New York Times Op-ed four days after the 2004 election, Gary Langer, director of polling for ABC News and a dissenting member of the team that drafted the questionnaire, cautioned that the inclusion on the exit poll of “this hot-button catch phrase…created a deep distortion--one that threatens to misinform the political discourse for years to come.” A series of subsequent polls, such as the American Values Survey (AVS), which I directed at the Center for American Values in Public Life in 2006, showed how distorting these assumptions were. AVS found that Americans in fact think mostly about “the honesty and integrity of the candidate” when voting their values. Even among white evangelicals, the group that was supposedly synonymous with “moral values voters,” only 1 in 5 (19 percent) thought primarily about the hot-button issues of abortion and same-sex marriage when voting their values.

Since 2004, much of the mainstream media has unfortunately continued to reinforce the assumptions that religion is only relevant to conservatives and Republicans. A recent study by Media Matters for America, "Left Behind: The Skewed Representation of Religion in Major News Media," documented the continued bias in linking conservative politics and religion. The study found that while media coverage of religion has increased significantly since 2004, conservative religious leaders were quoted, mentioned, or interviewed in news stories nearly three times as often as were progressive religious leaders.

Despite these well-known problems, in the exit polling in the 2008 primaries so far, the major media news outlets have once again pulled out their dog-eared script on religion and politics as they constructed the exit polls. In the Iowa and Michigan, Democrats weren’t asked about religion at all. In New Hampshire and South Carolina, more questions were asked of Republican voters on faith than Democratic voters. And nowhere have Democrats been asked if they were evangelical or born again, despite the fact that in 2006 white evangelicals made up 11.3 percent of the Democratic house vote nationwide, casting slightly more votes for Democratic candidates for example than black Protestants.

Even noting the source of objections to this practice is a testimony to the new religious landscape. Leah Daughtry, Chief of Staff of the Democratic National Committee (and herself an ordained Pentecostal minister) recently lamented in a Washington Post Op-ed that the biased exit polls drove media stories that

“often fail to acknowledge that people of faith are and can be Democrats.”

Similarly, a group of prominent evangelical leaders also objected to this prejudicial polling, declaring that these surveys

“pigeonholed evangelicals, reinforcing the false stereotype that we are beholden to one political party.”

As these leaders attest, this skewed coverage is damaging both to politics and to religion and diminishes our understanding of American public life. Hopefully the media will update their script with more equitable exit polling and balanced sources heading into Super Tuesday and through the home stretch of the election cycle.

Labels: dispatches from the beltway, evangelicals, exit polls, media